Puerto Morelos 2026 Hurricane Season: Forecasts & Official Alerts

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, and the early forecasts sound reassuring. But you still need to be prepared.

What the Forecasters Are Saying

Mexico's National Weather Service (SMN) released its official forecast on April 22, predicting between 11 and 15 named Atlantic storms.

That includes seven to eight tropical storms, three to five Category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and one to two major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Colorado State University, one of the most respected hurricane research teams in the world, is calling for 13 named storms and six hurricanes. That is slightly below the 30-year historical average.

The main reason for the quieter outlook is El Niño. A warm phase is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and when El Niño is strong, it creates powerful upper-level winds over the Atlantic that tear apart developing storms before they can grow.

The Caribbean Gets a Break, But the Gulf Does Not

El Niño tends to strengthen trade winds in the Caribbean, making it harder for storms to form close to home. SMN Director Fabián Vázquez Romaña confirmed this at the National Civil Protection Meeting in Veracruz.

But the Gulf of Mexico is a different story. Current data indicates that sea surface temperature anomalies, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, are expected to be very warm, enhancing the likelihood of rapid intensification should a storm traverse the Gulf this year.

"One Is Enough"

That is the message every forecaster keeps repeating, and anyone who has lived through a hurricane here already knows why.

Puerto Morelos has been hit before. Hurricane Wilma made its second landfall near Puerto Morelos in October 2005 with winds of about 132 mph.

Hurricane Delta came ashore just north of town in October 2020, and a peak wind gust of 110 mph was reported in Puerto Morelos. Neither of those was considered an exceptionally active season overall.

Know the Alert System

Quintana Roo uses a color-coded alert system. Every resident should have this memorized before June 1.

• Blue means a storm has been detected that could affect us. Stay informed.
• Green means low risk. Start checking your supplies. 
• Yellow means moderate risk. Secure loose items outside. 
• Orange means high probability of landfall. Have your evacuation plan ready and expect businesses to close. 
• Red means landfall is imminent. Shelter in place and stay inside.

Get Ready Now

The season runs June 1 through November 30, with September historically being the peak month. So you have a few weeks to prepare.

Check your roof and windows. Stock water, food, flashlights, batteries, and medications. Know where your important documents are. Follow Civil Protection Quintana Roo on social media for official alerts.

Also familiarize yourself with Mexico's New Mobile Phone Rain & Flood Alert System. And check on storm formation and tracking at the NOAA National Hurricane Center.

A quieter forecast is welcome news. But in Puerto Morelos, we know better than to take any season lightly.